Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.016830 0.019039 0.021429 0.024210 0.027356 0.030806 0.034877
2025-10-12 0.013495 0.016572 0.020185 0.024743 0.030345 0.037011 0.045557
2025-10-19 0.011721 0.015223 0.019571 0.025370 0.032913 0.042406 0.055290
2025-10-26 0.010173 0.013833 0.018587 0.025224 0.034266 0.046183 0.063131
2025-11-02 0.009044 0.012796 0.017865 0.025227 0.035670 0.049996 0.071216
2025-11-09 0.007995 0.011719 0.016932 0.024774 0.036307 0.052704 0.077896
2025-11-16 0.007348 0.011127 0.016588 0.025074 0.037976 0.056931 0.087045
2025-11-23 0.006667 0.010402 0.015963 0.024867 0.038823 0.059960 0.094600
2025-11-30 0.006279 0.010075 0.015888 0.025461 0.040904 0.064973 0.105589
2025-12-07 0.005631 0.009275 0.015002 0.024685 0.040732 0.066419 0.110966
2025-12-14 0.005146 0.008691 0.014400 0.024297 0.041123 0.068749 0.117925
2025-12-21 0.004657 0.008052 0.013650 0.023588 0.040898 0.070013 0.123141
2025-12-28 0.004509 0.007987 0.013860 0.024540 0.043611 0.076489 0.138021
2026-01-04 0.004305 0.007806 0.013855 0.025118 0.045719 0.082096 0.151874
2026-01-11 0.004128 0.007655 0.013886 0.025752 0.047966 0.088108 0.166955
2026-01-18 0.003850 0.007294 0.013509 0.025604 0.048752 0.091514 0.177436
2026-01-25 0.003620 0.007000 0.013230 0.025607 0.049809 0.095485 0.189306
2026-02-01 0.003349 0.006608 0.012732 0.025147 0.049930 0.097675 0.197848
2026-02-08 0.003198 0.006433 0.012633 0.025452 0.051566 0.102903 0.212884
2026-02-15 0.002998 0.006145 0.012290 0.025241 0.052144 0.106074 0.223960
2026-02-22 0.002904 0.006064 0.012348 0.025844 0.054426 0.112839 0.243090
2026-03-01 0.002670 0.005676 0.011759 0.025057 0.053743 0.113451 0.249140
2026-03-08 0.002496 0.005397 0.011372 0.024663 0.053854 0.115718 0.258944